Preview: 2012 Africa Cup of Nations
This Saturday, Equatorial Guinea will host Libya to kick-off the 28th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations. This will be the first appearance for Equatorial Guinea in this tournament, which is also co-hosted by Gabon. The 2012 ACoN will be the last tournament held on an even year. The Confederation of African Football (CAF) decided to keep the two-year cycle, but change it to odd years as to avoid clashes with FIFA World Cup years.
One thing that is certain about this year's edition is that there will be a new team lifting the trophy on February 12 after eight years. Egypt, winners of the last three editions, failed to qualify for the first time in 30 years when they last withdrew from the 1982 edition in Libya. However, Egypt isn't the only powerhouse missing from this year's tournament. Three 2010 World Cup participants, in the form of Cameroon, Nigeria, and South Africa, also failed to qualify.
Along with Equatorial Guinea, Botswana and Niger will be making their debut appearance at the Africa Cup of Nations. With new faces appearing and old powerhouses sitting out, this year could feature more contested matches, drama, and signs of a new era in African football. This continental tournament is already famous for it's high scoring matches. Let's take a look at all the 16 teams involved...
Group A
Equatorial GuineaEyes will be on the hosts and debutants, Equatorial Guinea. The team is the lowest ranked team, sitting at 151 in the FIFA Rankings. The team's only title is the CEMAC Cup in 2006, an amateur tournament consisting of local based players between only six different countries.
As hosts, the team did not take part in any qualifying matches. They did however, play nine matches over the past year, managing four wins, three losses, and two draws. Their biggest challenges were against Cameroon and South Africa; both ending in a draws.
The team will need all the superstition and home advantage they can get in this tournament. The draw was not kind for the hosts and they are expected to crash out of the group stage. They will open against Libya before facing Senegal and Zambia.
Prediction: Group Stage
LibyaDespite having suffered the most violence and instability among the nations of the Arab Spring, the Libyan national team capitalized on the recent patriotism and managed to finish as the top runner-up in the qualifying matches. It was Rabee Allafi's sole goal in Cairo against Mozambique that sent the new Libya to the first ACoN since 2006.
Now with a new government, national flag, and kits, the Libyan national team is hoping to put on a good display to please the people that suffered a tough 2011. Libya will partake in the opening match against Equatorial Guinea before facing Zambia and Senegal. Since their qualification, Libya played two friendlies. They drew 1-1 with Belarus before losing 1-0 to the Ivory Coast.
Libya will go into the group with some familiarity, having faced Zambia in the qualifying matches. They hold the upper-hand having beaten Zambia 1-0 at home and seeing out a goalless draw away. However, Senegal will prove to be Libya's biggest challenge in the group. Let's not rule out the impact of having to face the hosts in the opening match as well. The fight for the second spot into the quarterfinals will be a tough battle.
Prediction: Group Stage
SenegalSenegal is often referred to the dark horse of this tournament. After making a surprise debut ten years ago at the 2002 World Cup and finishing runners-up in the ACoN of that same year, Senegal slowly began to fade away only to recently rise again to the top crop of African teams. Senegal really hit rock bottom when they failed to even qualify from the first round of qualifying two years ago. The poor performance even prompted mass riots in the streets of Senegal. However this time, they managed to top their qualifying group with a five point lead over second place, Cameroon, and finish the group undefeated and with one draw.
With such a great performance in qualifying and strong attacking players with the likes of Demba Ba and Moussa Sow, Senegal will be hoping to make a dramatic return. Senegal also managed to win their two friendlies against Guinea and Sudan before the tournament, beating them 4-1 and 1-0 respectively.
Senegal will kick-off their campaign against Zambia before facing the hosts and Libya. They are favorites to top Group A, but they will have to continue their fine form and avoid any overconfidence.
Prediction: Third Place
ZambiaZambia also became a potential dark horse of Africa in recent years. They managed to cause Egypt and Algeria quite a few scares in the qualification to the 2010 World Cup. In the 2010 ACoN, Zambia topped Group D in a tough group containing Cameroon, Tunisia, and Gabon before suffering a quarterfinal defeat to Nigeria on penalties.
Zambia will be hoping to at least replicate their success of the 2010 edition. Hervé Renard returned to the helm after Dario Bonetti was sacked in October 2011. After managing great performances with the team in 2009 and 2010, he has a short stint with Angola before moving to club football in Algeria. Under his second stint, Zambia have played four friendlies in the buildup to the ACoN. Zambia 2-0 and 1-0 to Nigeria and Angola respectively, won 5-0 against India, and drew 0-0 with Namibia.
Zambia will open with their most difficult match against Senegal before taking on Libya and Equatorial Guinea. Zambia will be hoping to learn from their mistakes in the loss and draw to Libya in the qualification stage. Zambia have the confidence of at least reaching the quarterfinal with Renard back at the helm.
Prediction: Quarterfinal
Group B
Ivory CoastNot surprisingly, the Ivory Coast is one of the strong favorites to lift the trophy at the end. The team consists of talent from top clubs in Europe and is considered favorites every two years. In typical fashion, Ivory Coast qualified with a 100% record and an 18 goal differential over six matches. Despite all this, the team fails to meet expectations on the big stage.
It was Egypt that denied Ivory Coast their second title in 2006 thanks to a penalty shootout and it was Egypt that denied Ivory Coast again two years later in the semifinal. In 2010, Algeria pulled off a shock extra-time victory over The Elephants. Now with both Egypt and Algeria, among other powerhouses, out of the way, can this be the year for the civil-war torn country?
Ivory Coast prepared for the tournament with a draw against South Africa before beating Tunisia and Libya. Yaya Touré will be missed by Manchester City back in England, but he will hope he can lead his national team to an overdue title.
Prediction: Champions
SudanSudan is the only team in this tournament to have a squad solely based in its nation. Despite Sudan politically splitting into two different nations, the national team is still united for now. Sudan qualified to the ACoN only three times in the last 38 years; the last time coming in 2008. Their last performance saw them crash out of the group stage with three losses, no goals scored, and nine goals conceded.
Sudan was one of the two best runners-up to qualify for the 2012 ACoN. They finished second place behind Ghana in a group consisting also of Congo and Swaziland. Since their qualification, Sudan managed to play an astonishing 12 matches in preparation for the tournament. The results however are not welcoming, including a 2-0 loss to Palestine.
Sudan are expected to finish bottom of their group. They will open against Ivory Coast before taking on Angola and Burkina Faso. East Africa's sole representative will be happy to take part.
Prediction: Group Stage
Burkina FasoBurkina Faso will face familiar foes, Ivory Coast, yet again. However, Burkina Faso are considered by some lucky to even be playing at this stage. Namibia had filed a complaint to Court of Arbitration for Sport after Burkina Faso fielded an ineligible player in a qualifying match. The case was eventually thrown out.
The Stallions had a fairly easy path to qualification, beating off Gambia and Namibia to finish top of the three team group without a loss. In their preparation, they managed three consecutive draws to Mali, Guinea, and Gabon.
The will start off their campaign against Angola before facing Ivory Coast and Sudan. Their 100% foreign based squad is expected to be knocked out, but they could pull of a surprise and jump Angola to second place in the group.
Prediction: Group Stage
AngolaAngola hosted the last ACoN in 2010 and made it to the quarterfinals. Their 4-4 draw against Mali in the opening match two years ago was one of the memories of the tournament. But it's one they will have want to learned from after giving up a four goal lead in the last 10 minutes of the match. Ever since 2006, when they made their debut FIFA World Cup appearance, the team has risen up the ranks in Africa.
However, the Black Antlers could see their team on a course of decline as they barely managed to qualify for this year's edition. Despite being paired in a relatively simple group, Angola finished one point ahead of Uganda. In their preparation, they drew against the likes of Cameroon, Zambia, Namibia, and Nigeria before beating Sierra Leone 3-1.
Angola should be favorites for second place in the group, but they will have to watch out for a surprise from Burkina Faso in their first match of the tournament. They could take comfort in the fact they could secure qualification before playing their last group stage game against Ivory Coast.
Prediction: Quarterfinal
Group C
GabonGabon is the other host of this year's tournament. The team will be inspired not only by the fans, but by their young and upcoming squad. The U-23 side managed to win the 2011 CAF Under-23 Championships, beating off sides like Egypt, Nigeria, and Morocco to grab a place in the 2012 London Olympics.
Having not taken part in the ACoN qualification stages, it will be hard to assess the team's performances. They did however, face Brazil in November of last year to celebrate the opening of their new stadium. The match ended in a 2-1 loss for the hosts.
Gabon's draw is perhaps a bit more favorable than Equatorial Guinea's, but they will need all the right conditions to grab a spot in the quarterfinals. They will open against Niger before taking on the much tougher Morocco and Tunisia.
Prediction: Group Stage
NigerThe path of Niger's first qualification to an ACoN is a Cinderella story. Nobody expected them to come anywhere near qualification after being paired with Egypt and South Africa in their group. However, they managed to grab everyone's attention when they stood at the top of the group in a three-way tie with South Africa and Sierra Leone.
Niger decided to bring in a European coach along to assist head coach, Harouna Doula. The partnership brings uncertainty for the team. Since their qualification, they only played one friendly, a draw against Botswana.
The debutants will be happy to just be at the tournament. They are expected to pack their bags early, but their relatively unknown stature could cause the two North African giants in the group a few problems.
Prediction: Group Stage
MoroccoMorocco and Tunisia are the only hopes of continuing a long tradition of North African and Arab domination at the ACoN in recent years. Since their second place finish in Tunisia in 2006, Morocco exited the following tournaments at the group stage. However, they failed to qualify for the last edition in Angola.
The Atlas Lions finished top of their qualifying group after seeing off their neighbors, Algeria, as well as Central African Republic and Tanzania. In their preparation, they lost 1-0 to Uganda and in a penalty shootout to Cameroon following a 1-1 draw.
Morocco's biggest challenge will be their North African rivals, Tunisia, but Gabon will be breathing down their neck. They will need a solid performance to progress to the next stage, starting with the all important opener against Tunisia.
Prediction: Quarterfinal
TunisiaLibya and Tunisia managed to do what Egypt failed, and that's to turn their national revolutions to fuel their quest for qualification. Tunisia won their first and only title in 2004 on home soil before reaching the quarterfinals in the two following editions. However, Tunisia has suffered a setback in recent times, suffering a group stage exit two years ago.
Tunisia had a bumpy ride towards qualification, barely finishing second place behind Botswana. In their preparation for the tournament, they lost to Algeria and Ivory Coast 1-0 and 2-0 respectively. They managed to beat Sudan 3-0 earlier this month.
Tunisia's North African rivals, Morocco, will be their toughest test in the group. However, Gabon is no push-over and Tunisia will need to be at the top of their game if they want to at least get to the quarterfinal.
Prediction: Fourth Place
Group D
GhanaAlong with Ivory Coast, Ghana will be considered strong favorites to life the trophy. Ghana is boosted by a crop of young talented players that not only shined at continental level, but at international level as well. The young Black Stars first came onto the scene by becoming the first African nation to lift a FIFA U-20 World Cup trophy back in 2009. They went on to lead the team to the final of the 2010 ACoN only to lose by a late winner from Egypt. Ghana really grabbed the hearts of the masses went they burst through their group at the 2010 FIFA World Cup only to be denied by the infamous handball of Luis Suarez of Uruguay.
The second most successful team in the ACoN had no trouble qualifying with five wins and a draw. Ghana drew with Nigeria and beat Gabon in their preparation for this year's tournament. Ghana will be relying on the goalscoring of Asamoah Gyan, who surprisingly decided to move to the United Arab Emirates on loan from Sunderland.
The draw was fairly kind for Ghana and they should have no problem finishing top of their group with all nine points. They will also be happy to know that their strongest obstacle, Ivory Coast, won't potentially cross their path until the final. If the two teams make it all the way to the final, expect a hard fought match, most likely ending with a penalty shootout.
Prediction: Final
BotswanaWith Ghana heavy favorites to finish top of the group, the real battle will be for second place in Group D. Botswana is one of the three debutants in this tournament and their qualification is one of a fairy tale story. The Zebras managed to finish top of their qualifying group, consisting of Tunisia, Malawi, Togo, and Chad. Their fine form took them surging through the FIFA World Rankings and they now sit at 94th place.
Botswana's preparation for the tournament has been pleasing as well. They remained undefeated in their four friendlies. Botswana began with a goalless draw against Nigeria and a 1-1 draw against Niger. They followed with a 3-0 win over Lesotho before drawing with Zimbabwe earlier this month.
Botswana will be hoping to show their qualification wasn't a fluke and continue their fine form. They will start their campaign against Ghana before facing Guinea and Mali. It's still yet to be seen if the inexperience of the 100% African-based squad at such a level will prove costly. At the very least, the team is happy to make the journey.
Prediction: Group Stage
MaliMali qualified for their third consecutive ACoN and will be hoping to improve on their group stage exists from the last two editions. The locals in Mali have not been happy with the squad selection, which consists of mostly young players playing their trade in France.
On the road of qualification, Mali finished joint top with Cape Verde in a rather simple group, including Liberia and Zimbabwe. Their recent performances leave something to be desired among their fans.
Mali will have to depend on their captain and veteran, Seydou Keita, to lead the young players around him. The biggest battle for second place will probably between Mali and Botswana, with Mali getting a slight edge.
Prediction: Quarterfinal
GuineaGuinea enter the tournament having manged to shock Nigeria in the qualification stages. The team is no stranger to surprises though, having reached the quarterfinals in the 2004, 2006, and 2008 editions of the tournament. However, the team failed to even qualify in 2010.
The squad has a good blend of old and young to represent the country. The National Elephants will be looking for goals from Pascal Feindouno and Ismael Bangoura to keep them alive. Having kicked out Nigeria, Guinea will be a team to watch, but it remains to be seen if they have the talent of grab a spot in the quarterfinal.
Prediction: Group Stage
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Africa will now turn it's eyes toward the two host countries as they get ready for the kick-off of the biannual tournament. European managers and worried fans will also be following this tournament, hoping their players can return healthy and ready to help their clubs. Who will you be supporting? Who has what it takes to become the new champion of Africa? Please leave your comments below.