World Cup 2014 discussion thread.

If you're only thinking of yourself, sure. If you're thinking of your team and your chances of going through, then no.

There's also the fact that a huge majority of players score when they have the chance to win while a huge majority miss when that would lose it for them. The fact that their teammates all scored relieves the pressure and vice-versa.

Then again, I have no personal experience, so I could just be talking out of my arse.

Zzonked wrote:I think the best takers should usually go first, if the bad takers go first and miss, chances are your good players might not even get to take a penalty and you end up with this

.

Sounds like no one wanted one with the Dutch last night though.

It doesn't matter, if the players who missed early miss late and the other team's players score anyway you're fucked regardless of the order. If you're one of the first five the only way you don't get to take one is if taking one wouldn't make a difference.

Scott_LFC wrote:If the first 3 penalty takers scored, and you were the fourth, there would be huge pressure on you.

If 2 of the first 3 missed, and you were the fourth, the pressure wouldn't even be comparable to the above scenario.

No, it's a lot more because you know that if you miss you're out.

ResurrectionRooney wrote:

Zzonked wrote:I think the best takers should usually go first, if the bad takers go first and miss, chances are your good players might not even get to take a penalty and you end up with this

.

Sounds like no one wanted one with the Dutch last night though.

It doesn't matter, if the players who missed early miss late and the other team's players score anyway you're fucked regardless of the order.  If you're one of the first five the only way you don't get to take one is if taking one wouldn't make a difference.

Scott_LFC wrote:If the first 3 penalty takers scored, and you were the fourth, there would be huge pressure on you.

If 2 of the first 3 missed, and you were the fourth, the pressure wouldn't even be comparable to the above scenario.

No, it's a lot more because you know that if you miss you're out.

The first penalty is so important. It sets the tone. Score it, and you give your team a boost of confidence. Miss it, doubt starts to creep in, especially if the other team score the follow up penalty.

Picking Vlaar to take the first penalty was a woeful decision. If you guys can hail Van Gaal as a tactical genius for making a correct decision, then it's only fair to criticise him for making the wrong ones. I mean, Vlaar? Fucking hell. Against Costa Rica, Van Gaal picked the best penalty taker to go first (RVP) and made a logical decision in bringing Krul on for the penalty shootout (extremely logical, seeing as the other guy has never saved a penalty in his career). Whereas this time, he made a pointless late substitution, when the game was clearly going to be a stalemate and wasted the opportunity to put Krul on again. That was his first fuck up. But then to pick Vlaar to go first Jesus fucking Christ. That's embarrassingly bad and stinks of trying to get too clever/buying into his own hype.

Holland have failed to score in 240 minutes of football, ffs. Tactical genius!

And to top it all off, he takes credit for the Agentina goalkeeper making saves, and whines about how two Holland players refused to take the first penalty. I thought he had balls?

Such a fraud.

I agree that he should have left Van Persie on so he could still sub Krul on, or just play Krul, indeed that was the first thing I said after they lost. I'm always willing to criticise United managers, you should know that by now.

That said, your criticism of him for putting one of his worse takers first is borne out of ignorance. Please think it through before talking about these things. This subject has been studied in a terrifying amount of detail by doctors of sports science, they have published their findings that the optimal strategy is to go with your fifth best penalty taker first, followed by fourth, third, second and first, then from Sudden Death go from 6th best to 7th best and so on. The abstract of the article is here if you have an account or are willing to pay you can see the whole thing.

It is counter intuitive, but it makes sense.

ResurrectionRooney wrote:I agree that he should have left Van Persie on so he could still sub Krul on, or just play Krul, indeed that was the first thing I said after they lost.  I'm always willing to criticise United managers, you should know that by now.  

That said, your criticism of him for putting one of his worse takers first is borne out of ignorance.  Please think it through before talking about these things.  This subject has been studied in a terrifying amount of detail by doctors of sports science, they have published their findings that the optimal strategy is to go with your fifth best penalty taker first, followed by fourth, third, second and first, then from Sudden Death go from 6th best to 7th best and so on.  The abstract of the article is here if you have an account or are willing to pay you can see the whole thing.

It is counter intuitive, but it makes sense.

That's not what he tried to do, though. He wanted 2 other players to go first, and they refused. You keep ignoring this.

So what the fuck are you criticising him for then?

ResurrectionRooney wrote:

Zzonked wrote:I think the best takers should usually go first, if the bad takers go first and miss, chances are your good players might not even get to take a penalty and you end up with this

.

Sounds like no one wanted one with the Dutch last night though.

It doesn't matter, if the players who missed early miss late and the other team's players score anyway you're fucked regardless of the order.  If you're one of the first five the only way you don't get to take one is if taking one wouldn't make a difference.

But if you start with your good players there is a chance that it may be over in your favour before it even gets to the 5th penalty taker who is shit. Case in point, Argentina only needed 4 takers. If they had started with the 5th best first they would have unnecessarily had a bad penalty taker tested.

Zzonked wrote:

ResurrectionRooney wrote:

It doesn't matter, if the players who missed early miss late and the other team's players score anyway you're fucked regardless of the order.  If you're one of the first five the only way you don't get to take one is if taking one wouldn't make a difference.

But if you start with your good players there is a chance that it may be over in your favour before it even gets to the 5th penalty taker who is shit. Case in point, Argentina only needed 4 takers. If they had started with the 5th best first they would have unnecessarily had a bad penalty taker tested.

It doesn't matter if he's tested so long as the other four score and two for the Dutch miss. Even if he misses, they win anyway.

ResurrectionRooney wrote:So what the fuck are you criticising him for then?

He still should have picked someone better than Vlaar to take the first one. And he's spineless for not picking the better ones just because they "refused" how pathetic.

Scott_LFC wrote:

ResurrectionRooney wrote:So what the fuck are you criticising him for then?

He still should have picked someone better than Vlaar to take the first one. And he's spineless for not picking the better ones just because they "refused" how pathetic.

You really think he should have put players in who didn't want to be there?

Yes. Tell them to man the fuck up and score for his country.

Disagree there. Penalties are more mental than anything, these are world class athletes who can place a ball in a corner from 12 yards, if they explicitly refuse to take a penalty kick in the World Cup semi-final you have to assume they are not mentally ready for whatever reason, and you go to someone who is.

EDIT: Plus Vlaar was obviously their MOTM, he had to be pretty confident in his game.

But not subbing on Krul was a case of van Gaal believing his own hype. Probably thought the credit Krul got would spurn Cillessen on to be some kind of GOAT.

Yeah I agree. Van Gaal is incredibly stubborn, for instance he's been going 3-5-2 all tournament when its been clear as day that Holland are playing better in a 4-3-3.

Once the Dutch decided to sub for Krul once they should have stayed consistent and do the same here.  What kind of message does it send to the keeper here?  Suddenly you are good enough for PKs despite not being so against a lesser team?  It does not make any sense to follow these tactics.

Nearly went in

oops. beaten to the punch.

Keyser Söze wrote:Nearly went in

Can't believe Romero didn't make sure before he walked away.

Scuba Steve wrote:

Keyser Söze wrote:Nearly went in

Can't believe Romero didn't make sure before he walked away.

Must have been the professionalism that Aloysius van Gaal taught him.

Glen Miller wrote:

Scuba Steve wrote:

Can't believe Romero didn't make sure before he walked away.

Must have been the professionalism that Aloysius van Gaal taught him.

Can't believe Sabella threw Romero into the frying pan like that.

Scuba Steve wrote:

Glen Miller wrote:
Must have been the professionalism that Aloysius van Gaal taught him.

Can't believe Sabella threw Romero into the frying pan like that.

What?

Scuba Steve wrote:

Glen Miller wrote:
Steven Gerrard and Rooney have both taken and converted high-pressure penalties, and both have taken probably dozens of times as many as Ashley Cole has taken. Ashley Cole also missed one against Everton in an FA Cup match, if I remember correctly.

The fact of the matter is that Gerrard and Rooney both buried theirs (Buffon even guessed the right way on Gerrard's) while Cole hit one slowly and slightly off center into the arms of Buffon.  In fact, his penalty was so dreadful that Buffon didn't even have to parry it out, he just fell over and let it roll into him.  Ashley Young, meanwhile, completely lost his head and kicked it as hard as he could.

Are you seriously prepared to argue that Ashley Young and Ashley Cole are better penalty takers than Steven Gerrard and Wayne Rooney?

Ah this old dance again. I provide evidence to say that Ashley Cole has converted high pressure penalties before (including one a month before the miss you mention), which apparently implies that I think he's better than Gerrard and Rooney at penalties. Bravo, only you could bridge that gap.

EDIT

So in addition, Cole also converted the 4th penalty for Arsenal against Manchester United in the 2005 FA Cup final. The miss for Chelsea against Everton (fourth round FA Cup replay, probably not as much pressure as say a FA Cup final, or a Champions League final, or an European Championship quarterfinal) came as the fifth taker.

I haven't gone as far back yet in his Arsenal career to see if he had any other penalty attempts in shootouts, or the League Cup, but as far as I know right now, he was 3/3 as the fourth taker when Hodgson sent him up against Italy. Hardly constitutes throwing him into the frying pan, eh?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/fa_cup/4300405.stm

That doesn't specify which penalty taker he was, but they list him fourth, so I'll assume he was the fourth when Arsenal defeated Sheffield United in 2005 in the FA Cup. Which would have made him 4/4 before the Italy game as the 4th taker.

FINAL EDIT

Several other times his teams were in penalty shootouts, but he either didn't take one or wasn't taking part of the game (for Chelsea or Arsenal, doesn't appear that he played in a cup game for Crystal Palace). But, luckily enough for you, I just remembered to check the rest of England's shootout results. Didn't participate in 2006 (though maybe he should have!), but he converted for England in 2004 (though for some reason, they used him sixth). 

So, in the position Hodgson used him in during 2012, Cole was 4/4. Overall, he was 5/6 before Euro '12, taking 4 penalties in the 4th spot, 1 in the 5th spot, and 1 in the 6th spot.

You made an unclear sarcastic comment, so I made the conclusion that you were in direct disagreement with me.  I wasn't aware that you were referring specifically to Cole's record as the taker of the fourth penalty, I really should have known.

I think the fact that he has been overlooked on so many occasions is pretty telling about what some top international and club managers think about his ability as a taker of penalties, and with such a small sample size, you can't really call him overly reliable.

Glen got MERKED

Vela wrote:Glen got MERKED

Heck, I was wrong and jumped to conclusions about Scuba Steve's point. 

I'm not surprised to see you jumping even more quickly to leach off of someone else's work because you can't manage anything constructive yourself.  

Glen Miller wrote:

Scuba Steve wrote:

Ah this old dance again. I provide evidence to say that Ashley Cole has converted high pressure penalties before (including one a month before the miss you mention), which apparently implies that I think he's better than Gerrard and Rooney at penalties. Bravo, only you could bridge that gap.

EDIT

So in addition, Cole also converted the 4th penalty for Arsenal against Manchester United in the 2005 FA Cup final. The miss for Chelsea against Everton (fourth round FA Cup replay, probably not as much pressure as say a FA Cup final, or a Champions League final, or an European Championship quarterfinal) came as the fifth taker.

I haven't gone as far back yet in his Arsenal career to see if he had any other penalty attempts in shootouts, or the League Cup, but as far as I know right now, he was 3/3 as the fourth taker when Hodgson sent him up against Italy. Hardly constitutes throwing him into the frying pan, eh?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/fa_cup/4300405.stm

That doesn't specify which penalty taker he was, but they list him fourth, so I'll assume he was the fourth when Arsenal defeated Sheffield United in 2005 in the FA Cup. Which would have made him 4/4 before the Italy game as the 4th taker.

FINAL EDIT

Several other times his teams were in penalty shootouts, but he either didn't take one or wasn't taking part of the game (for Chelsea or Arsenal, doesn't appear that he played in a cup game for Crystal Palace). But, luckily enough for you, I just remembered to check the rest of England's shootout results. Didn't participate in 2006 (though maybe he should have!), but he converted for England in 2004 (though for some reason, they used him sixth). 

So, in the position Hodgson used him in during 2012, Cole was 4/4. Overall, he was 5/6 before Euro '12, taking 4 penalties in the 4th spot, 1 in the 5th spot, and 1 in the 6th spot.

You made an unclear sarcastic comment, so I made the conclusion that you were in direct disagreement with me.  I wasn't aware that you were referring specifically to Cole's record as the taker of the fourth penalty, I really should have known.

I think the fact that he has been overlooked on so many occasions is pretty telling about what some top international and club managers think about his ability as a taker of penalties, and with such a small sample size, you can't really call him overly reliable.

There was no uncertainty to what my comment pertained to. I was speaking specifically about Ashley Cole's record in penalty shootouts. Never once did I mention Ashley Young, though you conveniently lumped him into "my" argument that you created for me (I could have looked up Young's record, and it could have supported either you or me, but I'm not for peddling shit and pushing it as gospel). I'm all for questioning Hodgson and his tactics, and man management, and press management, but that doesn't mean taking uneducated swipes at people. Its unbecoming. 

As for when he hasn't taken them -- I didn't venture deep enough in to even see if he had taken part of the games in which they occurred. I know he didn't participate in the League Cup penalty shootout against Middlesborough in 1999, which was his professional debut for Arsenal. He was on the field at the time, but you might excuse Wenger for not using an 18 year old left back in the penalties (which shouldn't be compared to a seasoned pro in 2012 anyways). He wasn't even on the bench for the 2003 9-8 penalty win over Rotherham, and he wasn't on the field during Chelsea's 4-5 shootout loss to Burnley in 2008 (in fact, Wayne Bridge missed his penalty kick, presumably in place of Cole). I don't recall the couple of others, maybe he was part of them, maybe he wasn't.

But again, your comment about being overlooked "on so many occasions" lacks any sort of merit or evidence to back it up. And sure, his sample size of taking penalties late on in the shootout is small, but its quite a bit bigger than his sample size from taking them in the earlier rounds (just a shade over an infinity times larger). So, as my original (sure sarcastic) counter-point proves, Hodgson by no means was throwing Cole (remember, I just referred to Cole) into the frying pan. In fact (this may be true, may not be, sorry I don't know Hodgson's line of thinking), it's likely that Hodgson or an assistant knew Cole's penchant for timing on his penalty kicks, and used him justly. The ends obviously didn't justify the means, but that's certainly not a way to construct an argument.

Scuba Steve wrote:

Glen Miller wrote:
You made an unclear sarcastic comment, so I made the conclusion that you were in direct disagreement with me.  I wasn't aware that you were referring specifically to Cole's record as the taker of the fourth penalty, I really should have known.

I think the fact that he has been overlooked on so many occasions is pretty telling about what some top international and club managers think about his ability as a taker of penalties, and with such a small sample size, you can't really call him overly reliable.

There was no uncertainty to what my comment pertained to. I was speaking specifically about Ashley Cole's record in penalty shootouts. Never once did I mention Ashley Young, though you conveniently lumped him into "my" argument that you created for me (I could have looked up Young's record, and it could have supported either you or me, but I'm not for peddling shit and pushing it as gospel). I'm all for questioning Hodgson and his tactics, and man management, and press management, but that doesn't mean taking uneducated swipes at people. Its unbecoming. 

As for when he hasn't taken them -- I didn't venture deep enough in to even see if he had taken part of the games in which they occurred. I know he didn't participate in the League Cup penalty shootout against Middlesborough in 1999, which was his professional debut for Arsenal. He was on the field at the time, but you might excuse Wenger for not using an 18 year old left back in the penalties (which shouldn't be compared to a seasoned pro in 2012 anyways). He wasn't even on the bench for the 2003 9-8 penalty win over Rotherham, and he wasn't on the field during Chelsea's 4-5 shootout loss to Burnley in 2008 (in fact, Wayne Bridge missed his penalty kick, presumably in place of Cole). I don't recall the couple of others, maybe he was part of them, maybe he wasn't.

But again, your comment about being overlooked "on so many occasions" lacks any sort of merit or evidence to back it up. And sure, his sample size of taking penalties late on in the shootout is small, but its quite a bit bigger than his sample size from taking them in the earlier rounds (just a shade over an infinity times larger). So, as my original (sure sarcastic) counter-point proves, Hodgson by no means was throwing Cole (remember, I just referred to Cole) into the frying pan. In fact (this may be true, may not be, sorry I don't know Hodgson's line of thinking), it's likely that Hodgson or an assistant knew Cole's penchant for timing on his penalty kicks, and used him justly. The ends obviously didn't justify the means, but that's certainly not a way to construct an argument.

Fair enough, I was wrong to use such hyperbolic language.  I just checked the lineups and saw that we were left with a bunch of youngsters, scrubs, and defenders for the shootout.

Maybe we were right to use Cole after all, but I still maintain that he would have been better off going second. Regarding the sample size, I am talking about his penalty-taking exploits as a whole-I do find it interesting that he's taken so many from 4th in the shootout, but ultimately he proved that whatever penchant he has for taking it from that time didn't pay off, presumably because of the enormous amount of pressure placed on a not overly experienced penalty-kick taker. He's succeeded in similar situations a few times before, but I think that we would have been better off with Rooney or Gerrard in that position-almost a miss & you're out situation, a momentum shift because of Ashley Young's miss, the added psychological pressure resulting from England's history with penalties.  I can't recall the circumstances of the shootout when he took his penalties in other shootouts, but I imagine they were not quite as trying.  Maybe it wasn't the frying pan, but it was an extremely testing situation.

please stop Scuba you're hurting him