I understand there is already a thread on Italy losing a CL spot to Germany, but I found this a interesting read therefore have decided to post it.
http://philosofooty.afootballreport.com/post/3513376026/the-fall-of-the-italian-empire-is-complete
by Amit Katwala, writing from London
Bayer Leverkusen’s 6-0 destruction of Ukrainian side Metalist Kharkiv in the Europa League last night may not have garnered much media attention from those who follow the ‘bigger leagues’ in Europe, those of England, Spain, Italy.
But it should have.
The resulting boost to Germany’s UEFA co-effiicient means that the country has definitely cemented its third place in the standings. You can see the latest table here. The numbers take into account performances in European competitions over the last few years and apply various weightings and mathematical manipulations to them. The important thing to take away from the data is this: From next season Germany will get a 4th Champion’s League place at the expense of Serie A, which will only get 3 teams.
So how did this happen?
The Calciopoli match-fixing scandal was the killer blow, but the fall of Serie A had already been on the way for a number of years by then. The league that had been the dominant force in world football throughout the 1990s lost its official place as the top league in Europe at the turn of the century, and stars like original Ronaldo made the journey over to La Liga.
Although Inter won the Champions League last year, and Milan back in 2007, the lack of competition in the domestic league is a sign of the decline - Inter have won the last five Scudettos, and only four different teams have finished in the top 2 in the last decade. League leaders AC Milan’s horrendous display against Spurs last weeks showed that apart from last year’s Inter, Italian teams no longer have the quality to challenge for the top European honours.
In contrast to Serie A, 7 different German teams have finished in the top 2 of the Bundesliga since the 2000-01 season, and Wolfsburg’s astonishing run of two years ago in which they scooped the title was something that would be unlikely to happen in any other league.
Is this just a statistical anomaly?
The way the co-efficients are calculated means that results in the Europa League carry as much weight as those in the Champions League, and a lot of Germany’s rise up the table can be attributed to their teams performances in the continent’s second competition. It could be argued therefore that the Bundesliga overtaking Serie A is just a quirk of statistics, and Germany doesn’t really deserve 4 Champions League Places.
However, I don’t think this is the case. The Bundesliga has won a lot of plaudits for it’s fan ownership model, and it could be argued that this has aided it in overtaking Serie A. The teams are on a much more even footing, so the domestic competition is more evenly balanced, in contrast to Italy, where Inter or AC can reasonably expect to win every week.
While this helps raise the overall quality of the teams in the league, it can sometimes have a detrimental effect on aggregate performance in Europe. The reason Premier League teams have done so well in Europe over the last decade or so is because they have amassed vast amounts of experience - the same English teams qualify every year, and get more and more expert at navigating through the group stages.
The German league also has much stronger attendances than Serie A, and in fact had the highest average attendance per game in 2008-09, at 42,565. More people went to Championship matches in that season than Serie A games.
With popularity, financial stability, and now more teams competing at the highest level, expect the Champions League trophy to be in German hands before too long.
http://philosofooty.afootballreport.com/post/3513376026/the-fall-of-the-italian-empire-is-complete
